Duration of U.S. forest products trade

The United States has been a leading participant in the global forest products market. Duration analysis is employed to measure the duration of U.S. exports and imports of forest products over 1996-2016 and to examine the underlying determinants. Outcomes from the descriptive statistical analysis reveal that the duration of U.S. forest products trade is remarkably short, with a median duration of one quarter based on the quarterly data, or one year for the annual data. The duration of trade spells also varies across different types of forest products. Based on the discrete-time duration model, several determinants of export and import duration are identified at the country and product level. Gravity-type variables (e.g., distance and income) are found to affect the likelihood of trade ceasing. Better endowments in forest resources can improve the survival rate of forest products trade. In designing policies to reduce the pressure of import growth, promote exports of forest products, or have a better trade balance, the differences in trade direction and product features should be considered.