Examining hardwood pulp and ethanol prices for improved poplar plantations in Canada

Temporal variation in prices is an important factor that influences returns on investments and decisions made by policy makers. This study investigates the behaviour of two output prices potentially associated with growing improved poplars in Canada: hardwood pulp and ethanol. Time series techniques are used to assess the processes and volatility of hardwood pulp and ethanol price series. The findings indicate that price series for hardwood pulp and ethanol are best characterized by mean reverting processes around constant averages, indicating more predictability for poplar producers than would be the case for random walks. However, the results from the volatility analysis suggest substantial uncertainty for producers. The volatility of both markets is found be to be highly related to past volatilities, and therefore persistent. To the extent that future prices are more volatile, the importance of producers considering multiple product options for pulp plantations increases, as do complexities for policy makers to predict the impacts of policies to support biofuels.