Budgeting for government-financed PES: Does ecosystem service demand equal ecosystem service supply?

The observed budget allocation showed a relatively high degree of congruence with the identified preferences; therefore, our hypothesis that a high level of participation and transparency in the budgeting process, as is the case in the study region, leads to congruence between the budget allocation and voter preferences cannot be rejected. An exact match between both was not mathematically feasible, and the closest fit led to significantly reduced environmental benefits. These results support the notions that the observed budget allocation is relatively optimal and that a completely preference-driven allocation would lead to undesirable, less cost-effective outcomes. Further validating studies should be conducted to test different statistical models and estimation robustness and consider possible within-area differences.