| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6690290 | Applied Energy | 2014 | 8 Pages |
Abstract
Comparison of NAM forecast revenue to perfect day-ahead forecast revenue shows that perfect forecast revenue is always greater. However, yearly NAM forecast revenue is as much as 98% of the perfect forecast revenue for some sites. After a bias-correction is applied to NAM forecasts, NAM forecast revenue decreases. This demonstrates that based on the observed DAM-RTM price spread, biased forecasts can have a higher forecast value than more accurate forecasts. However, when a deviation penalty is assessed, the most accurate forecasts always yield the highest total revenue.
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Authors
Jennifer Luoma, Patrick Mathiesen, Jan Kleissl,