Mathematics growth trajectories in first grade: Cumulative vs. compensatory patterns and the role of number sense

We examined mathematics growth trajectories in first grade for overall achievement and three separate competences (Basic Precursors, Advanced Precursors, Computation). 153 German students computed seven web-based progress monitoring tests during the school year. Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) provided evidence for mainly cumulative patterns of performance development: In all competences, we found groups of initially high-performing students with the highest end scores and groups of initially low-performing students with little or no growth. In contrast to this general pattern, compensatory trajectories with groups of initially lower-performing students and steep growth were found. For precursor competences, these catch-up groups did not have increased odds of belonging to low-end outcome groups in higher competences. The findings demonstrate the added value of repeatedly assessing both precursor and grade-level skills for identifying students who follow favorable or unfavorable learning trajectories.