Sharp probability inequalities for reliable evacuation planning

This paper contributes to the literature by providing new techniques to determine optimal evacuation routes when limited information is known about the evacuation demand and road capacities. Specifically, this research complements prior work by requiring only their first and second moments to be known. The inclusion of an optional symmetry assumption is rigorously shown to further reduce the evacuation time. Finally, we demonstrate that the probability inequalities that serve to ensure the confidence level of the evacuation plan are sharp. A case study illustrates the core idea of demand inflation and supply deflation in obtaining reliable evacuation plans.