Effects of political instability in consolidated destinations: The case of Catalonia (Spain)

Catalonia is one of the most successful tourist regions in Spain. This article analyses the immediate impact that the instability associated to the recent political situation in Catalonia has had on the arrivals and spending of international tourists in the region using the classical Box-Jenkins method (ARIMA) and the more recent Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models. The results obtained indicate that during the final quarter of 2017, political events led to a reduction in the arrivals and spending of tourists in the region, although whether this impact reached statistical significance depends on the estimation method used.