Quantifying EV battery end-of-life through analysis of travel needs with vehicle powertrain models

Electric vehicles enable clean and efficient transportation, however concerns about range anxiety and battery degradation hinder EV adoption. The common definition for battery end-of-life is when 70-80% of original energy capacity remains, however little analysis is available to support this retirement threshold. By applying detailed physics-based models of EVs with data on how drivers use their cars, we show that EV batteries continue to meet daily travel needs of drivers well beyond capacity fade of 80% remaining energy storage capacity. Further, we show that EV batteries with substantial energy capacity fade continue to provide sufficient buffer charge for unexpected trips with long distances. We show that enabling charging in more locations, even if only with 120 V wall outlets, prolongs useful life of EV batteries. Battery power fade is also examined and we show EVs meet performance requirements even down to 30% remaining power capacity. Our findings show that defining battery retirement at 70-80% remaining capacity is inaccurate. Battery retirement should instead be governed by when batteries no longer satisfy daily travel needs of a driver. Using this alternative retirement metric, we present results on the fraction of EV batteries that may be retired with different levels of energy capacity fade.