A statistical-process based approach for modelling beach profile variability

This paper presents a methodology for modelling medium term (annual to decadal) cross shore beach profile change and erosion. The statistical-process based approach (SPA) presented here combines detailed statistical modelling of offshore storm climate with a process based morphodynamic model (XBeach), to assess, and quantify morphodynamic variability of cross shore beach profiles. Until now, the use of process based models has been limited to simulations at storm event timescales. This methodology therefore represents the first application of a fully process based model in longer term simulations, as such, the approach requires simulation of post-storm beach profile recovery as well as individual event impacts. Narrabeen Beach, NSW, Australia was used as a case study for application of the technique due to the availability of an extensive set of storm and beach profile data. The results presented here demonstrate that the methodology produces encouraging results for determining medium term beach profile variability and erosion.