Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions in urban China: A spatio-temporal perspective

Carbon dioxide (CO2)-emission dynamics are critical to inter-governmental climate negotiations. Previous studies have noted a gradual equalization of per capita CO2 emissions across developed countries; that is, CO2 emissions converge across developed countries. However, they have ignored the effects of spatio-temporal dynamics on such convergence. In this paper, we address this gap in understanding the regional convergence of CO2 emissions by considering the spatio-temporal dynamics underlying the data. An empirical analysis of CO2 emissions in urban China based on our spatio-temporal model shows that overall, per capita CO2 emissions in these areas increased and converged from 1985 to 2008. The proposed convergence model provides greater explanatory power than its conventional counterpart due to the specification of spatio-temporal dependency. Our results reveal the dynamics of spatial effects in the convergence model, thus identifying the role of spatial effects in a disaggregated manner. The convergence rate increases when considering its spatio-temporal dependency. This ‘catching-up’ in the convergence of CO2 emissions indicates an increasing trend in such emissions in China, although the Chinese government has taken many measures to reduce CO2 emissions. These results should motivate policy makers to reflect on whether current policies actually reduce carbon emissions.

► Previous studies ignore the spatio-temporal dynamic effects on the convergence of CO2 emissions. ► This paper extends the regional convergence in CO2 emissions by considering spatio-temporal dynamics underlying the data. ► Per capita CO2 emissions in urban China increase and have converged over the period 1985–2008. ► The convergence rate speeds up when considering the spatio-temporal dependency. ► The ‘catching-up’ convergence in CO2 emissions indicates a worsening situation in China.