Chinese drought, bread and the Arab Spring

In 2011 winter drought in eastern China’s wheat-growing region had significant implications beyond the country’s borders. Potential crop failure due to drought led China to buy wheat on the international market and contributed to a doubling of global wheat prices; the resultant price spikes had a serious economic impact in Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, where bread prices tripled. Quantifying the 2011 drought in China’s wheat region with the Standard Precipitation Index identified extreme drought across the region that peaked in January 2011. Findings document the spatial extent and severity of the drought as the most serious on record and explain China’s efforts to minimize the 2011 drought’s domestic impact. The country’s mitigation efforts had repercussions in Egypt where high food prices were a contributory factor to civil unrest. Tracking the drought – wheat price rise – protest trajectory suggests the potential direct and indirect links between natural hazards, food security and political stability at local and global scales.

► China’s eastern agricultural experienced extreme drought in winter/spring 2011. ► Chinese drought contributed to a doubling of global wheat prices. ► The drought affected the price of bread in Egypt which influenced political protest. ► The process exemplifies the potential global consequences of climate hazards today.