The impact of rainfall and temperature variation on diarrheal prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Climate variation is known to affect human health in developing countries. This paper quantifies the impact of variations in precipitation and temperature on the regional prevalence of diarrhea in children under the age of three in Sub-Saharan Africa. Demographic and Health Survey data for the regions of 14Sub-Saharan African countries are matched at fine resolution with climate data from the Africa Rainfall and Temperature Evaluation System (ARTES) for the period between 1992 and 2001. The results show that shortage of rainfall in the dry season increases the prevalence of diarrhea across Sub-Saharan Africa. Such shortages occur in many regions when rainfall is average and low relative to the long-term average for that month. The results also show that an increase in monthly average maximum temperature raises the prevalence of diarrhea while an increase in monthly minimum temperature reduces diarrheal illness.

► We study how climate affects diarrheal prevalence in children in Sub-Saharan Africa. ► We have matched health and climate data at fine resolution. ► Rainfall shortage and raised temperatures raise diarrheal prevalence in dry seasons. ► Rainfall shortage is predominant, occurring when rainfall is average and low. ► Alleviation of water shortages would lower the prevalence of children’s diarrhea.