Maxent modeling of ancient and modern agricultural terraces in the Troodos foothills, Cyprus

Terracing is a basic component of agricultural land use systems across multiple landscapes and time periods. This study develops a predictive model using the environmental variables that differentiate ancient and modern terrace locations in the foothills of the Troodos Mountains, Cyprus. Model development utilized the maximum entropy principle as applied by Maxent software to estimate probability distributions for both terrace types across geographical space based upon presence-only observations and environmental variables. The Maxent models are effective in predicting potential terrace distributions and reveal systematic differences between ancient and modern terrace arrays in the study area. Surface geology played a key role in predicting ancient terrace locations, but contributed much less substantially in modeling modern terraces, whose locations were influenced strongly by topography. Maxent modeling is shown to be effective in assessing environmental constraints and terrace locations, providing a method that can be used by physical geographers and archaeologists for modeling human–environment interactions in agrarian societies.

► A predictive model of environmental context is developed for ancient and modern agricultural terraces. ► The model is developed using Maxent. ► Geology and hydrology are strong predictors of ancient terraces. ► Slope was the strongest predictor of modern terraces. ► Maxent proved effective in developing a predictive model for agricultural terraces.