Using multi-criteria risk ranking methodology to select case studies for a generic risk assessment framework for exotic disease incursion and spread through Europe

We present a novel approach of using the multi-criteria pathogen prioritisation methodology as a basis for selecting the most appropriate case studies for a generic risk assessment framework. The approach uses selective criteria to rank exotic animal health pathogens according to the likelihood of introduction and the impact of an outbreak if it occurred in the European Union (EU). Pathogens were evaluated based on their impact on production at the EU level and international trade. A subsequent analysis included criteria of relevance to quantitative risk assessment case study selection, such as the availability of data for parameterisation, the need for further research and the desire for the case studies to cover different routes of transmission. The framework demonstrated is flexible with the ability to adjust both the criteria and their weightings to the user's requirements. A web based tool has been developed using the RStudio shiny apps software, to facilitate this.