Predicting the severity of Dothistroma on Pinus radiata under current climate in New Zealand

Despite being a damaging foliar disease of Pinus species little research has characterised spatial variation in disease severity of Dothistroma needle blight at a macroscale. Using an extensive dataset describing Dothistroma needle blight severity (Ssev) on plantation grown Pinus radiata stands distributed widely across New Zealand the objectives of this research were to (i) develop a regression model describing Ssev, (ii) use this model to identify key drivers of Ssev, their functional form and relative importance, and (iii) develop spatial predictions of Ssev for New Zealand P. radiata under current climate. Using an independent validation dataset, the final model accounted for 72% of the variance in Ssev using four significant (P < 0.001) explanatory variables and an isotrophic exponential model to account for the spatial covariance in the data. Ssev was most sensitive to mean air temperature from November to April (TNov–Apr), followed by mean relative humidity from October to April (RHOct–Apr), mean total November rainfall (PNov), and then stand age (A). There was a quadratic correlation between A and Ssev with Ssev increasing to a maxima at 12 years before declining. Ssev exponentially increased to a threshold with increases in both PNov and RHOct–Apr. The relationship between Ssev and TNov–Apr was quadratic with Ssev increasing to a maximum at TNov–Apr of 15.5 °C before declining at higher values of TNov–Apr. Spatial predictions of Ssev varied widely throughout New Zealand. Values of Ssev were highest in moderately warm wet environments in the North Island, and on the west coast of the South Island. In contrast, relatively low values of Ssev were predicted in drier eastern and southern regions of New Zealand.

Research highlights► Dothistroma needle blight is a devastating disease of plantation pines. ► We develop a model and spatial surface of Dothistroma severity for radiata pine in New Zealand. ► Severity was highest in warm areas with high rainfall and high relative humidity. ► Severity increased to a maximum at a stand age of 12 before declining.