Can China achieve its carbon emission peaking? A scenario analysis based on STIRPAT and system dynamics model

As a big country of carbon emissions, China has made a series of efforts to achieve its commitments, such as energy saving and emission reduction actions. Against this backdrop, we established an extended-STIRPAT model combined with system dynamics model to investigate driving factors of CO2 emissions, emission peaking and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in China. The results of panel regression show that all coefficients are significant at 1%, 5% or 10% confidence levels. Based on STIRPAT model, emission peaking was testified. The results can be divided into 3 categories. In the first category, the carbon emission peaks will exist, which will appear in the year 2023. In the second category, there are also carbon emission peaks, and carbon emissions will peak in the year 2025. In the third category, there are basically no obvious decline trends. In addition, we also explored EKC hypothesis. The results show that the EKC hypothesis is verified in our paper. We can conclude that it shows an inverse U-shaped curve obviously between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions in China. In all, these findings are helpful for policymakers to implement reasonable policies to achieve carbon emission peaking in China.