Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
8845827 | Ecological Informatics | 2018 | 22 Pages |
Abstract
Ecosystems are known to change in terms of their structure and functioning over time. Modelling this change is a challenge, however, as data are scarce, and models often assume that the relationships between ecosystem components are invariable over time. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) with hidden variables have been proposed as a method to overcome this challenge, as the hidden variables can capture the unobserved processes. In this paper, we fit a series of DBNs with different hidden variable structures to a system known to have undergone a major structural change, i.e. the Baltic Sea food web. The exact setup of the hidden variables did not considerably affect the result, and the hidden variables picked up a pattern that agrees with previous research on the system dynamics.
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Authors
Laura Uusitalo, Maciej T. Tomczak, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Ivars Putnis, Neda Trifonova, Allan Tucker,