Dominants in evolution of urban energy metabolism: A case study of Beijing

Ecological network analysis is an important tool for urban energy metabolism research, but it does not consider the dynamic and synergy features of the system, which constraints its application in urban transition studies. In this paper, we modified the ecological network analysis method to identify the key factors that dominate the evolution of the urban energy metabolism. Focusing on the dynamic and synergy characteristics of the system, we observed the changes of direct and indirect energy consumption flows and combined with Haken model to determine the dominant factors of the metabolic processes. A case study on Beijing was conducted to diagnose the key flows that impact the evolution of Beijing's energy metabolic system during 2010-2015. Results suggest that despite the decline in Beijing's coal consumptions, the direct and indirect parts have different tendency among sectors. During the research period, the pathway “coal to industry” displays dominant effects on the evolution of Beijing's energy metabolic system.