Context-dependent post-dispersal predation of acorns in a California oak community

Seed dispersal and predation play important roles in plant life history by contributing to recruitment patterns in the landscape. Mast-seeding - extensive synchronized inter-annual variability in seed production - is known to influence the activity of acorn consumers at source trees, but little is known about its effect on post-dispersal predation. We conducted a planting experiment over three years to investigate the relationship between habitat-level post-dispersal predation and landscape-wide acorn production of three sympatric oak species (Quercus spp.). We measured post-dispersal predation in three oak-dominated habitats - savanna (under Q. lobata), forest edge (under Q. agrifolia), and woodland (under Q. douglasii) - as well as in chaparral and open fields. Overall, landscape-level predation was similarly high among study years, averaging 61.4%. Neither species nor mass of planted acorns affected predation. Habitat had a significant effect on post-dispersal predation risk with acorns disappearing most rapidly in chaparral and least rapidly in woodlands. However, a significant interaction between year and habitat (Z = −4.5, P < 0.001) showed that the hierarchy of predation risk among habitats was inconsistent among years. Using annual acorn census data from local populations of each oak species, we found that predation risk in oak-dominated habitats was significantly and positively related to acorn production of the overstory species (Z = −9.53, P = 0.009). Our findings add to growing evidence that seed dispersal, predation, and regeneration are context-dependent on annual variation in community-level seed production, and we discuss the potential consequences of these dynamics on oak recruitment and animal behavior.