Prioritizing actions for the recovery of endangered species: Emergent insights from Greater Sage-grouse simulation modeling

Urgent conservation situations require immediate action informed by existing data and information. Model-based analyses are well suited to rapidly identifying and evaluating alternative actions but often lack explicit linkages between habitat conditions and population outcomes. We provide an example of how spatially explicit population modeling can uniquely inform conservation planning by integrating changes in habitat conditions with population responses. Using a case study of the critically endangered Greater Sage-grouse in Canada, we integrated habitat selection maps, demography and demographic risk maps, movement, and behavior into a predictive individual-based modeling framework. We used this framework to simulate population dynamics, evaluate demographic sensitivities, assess source-sink dynamics, and compared the population gains from restoring different types (strengths) of sinks. Sensitivity analysis results underscored the need for multiple, simultaneous population recovery actions to stabilize the population, including improving chick and adult survival. Strong source-sink dynamics were an emergent property of simulations, driven by the maladaptive selection of habitats with low chick survival and nest success. Simulated habitat restorations improving chick survival conditions in strong sinks were more effective at increasing abundance than actions targeting all sinks, or removing sinks. Spatially explicit population modeling can be an informative means of predicting and comparing potential population responses to habitat restoration and population recovery options. Individual-based modeling can uniquely evaluate habitat-population dynamics and can be particularly useful for critically endangered species, when too few animals or time remains to conduct field experiments.