Farmer behavior and perceptions to alternative scenarios in a highly intensive agricultural region, south central China

Intensive agriculture has caused unintended environmental consequences, such as water quality degradation. It is necessary for policymakers to make proper planning of sustainable agricultural development. Using a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework, we conducted surveys focused on farmer behavior toward agriculture and environmental protection in 2009 and 2011. The surveys indicated that farmer behavior was complex and contradictory, and caused some environmental effects. Therefore, we used normative landscape scenario method to develop two scenarios. Both scenarios emphasized on stable economic growth along with water quality improvement and presented good effects. A feedback survey was organized in 2013 to interpret farmers' perceptions of the alternative scenarios. The results indicate Scenario I is likely to be accepted by farmers; however, the beautiful rural landscape in Scenario II represents what farmers want, and Scenario I or II can be achieved by changing farm behavior in the future. By logistic regression model analysis, increasing agriculture benefits and new technology popularization were key factors affecting farmer behavior. Relevant policy implications on farmers were proposed. This paper showed how important to understand farmer behavior and perceptions to agricultural development, and a description of the alternative scenarios and policy implications are meaningful for policymakers to manage nature resources.