Impacts of the north migration of China's rice production on its ecosystem service value during the last three decades (1980-2014)

The ecosystem services value (ESV) of rice system has received increasing attention in agricultural policy decision. Over the last three decades, China's rice production presented an obviously trend that moving towards north locations. However, the impacts of this migration on the ESV of rice production have not been well documented. In this paper, we analyzed the change of the ESV of rice production in China under “north migration” and “no migration” scenarios during 1980-2014 based on long-term historical data. The results showed that both the positive and negative ESVs of rice production were lower under “north migration” than under “no migration” scenarios. The total ESV during 1980-2014 was reduced by 15.8%. “North migration” significantly reduced the area-scaled ESV since the early 1990s; while its impact on yield-scaled ESV was not significant. The effects of “north migration” on ESV showed great spatial variation. The greatest reduction in total and area-scaled ESV was observed in south locations. While the yield-scaled ESVs of most south locations were enhanced under “north migration” scenario. These results indicated that “north migration” has generated adverse effects on the ESV of rice production. An adjustment in the spatial distribution is essential to protecting the non-production benefits of rice ecosystem.