Variation in the abundance of invertebrate predators of the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum (Walker) (Homoptera: Aphididae) along an altitudinal transect

Green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum (Walker) is a major defoliator of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) in north-west Europe and other parts of the world that have a mild and wet maritime climate. Periods of cold weather during the winter currently limit E. abietinum populations and the amount of damage, but as mean winter temperatures rise in response to global climate change, overwinter survival of the aphid is likely to improve and the risk of severe and more widespread defoliation will increase. Populations of E. abietinum are also influenced by mortality caused by generalist invertebrate predators, although the extent to which predation might modify the response of E. abietinum to climate change is unclear. In this study, the response of generalist predators to changes in environmental conditions and potential increases in E. abietinum populations was evaluated by sampling invertebrate predators in the canopy of Sitka spruce along an altitudinal gradient from 310 m to 610 m above sea-level. Variation in predator abundance was related to local climate and aphid numbers. Population densities of E. abietinum differed widely between altitudes, and showed different patterns in different years, but mean densities over the 3-year study were highest at mid altitudes. In contrast, the majority of invertebrate predators (coccinellid and cantharid beetles, syrphid larvae, brown lacewings, spiders and harvestmen) were most abundant at low altitudes. Their abundance was not correlated with E. abietinum densities, but coincided with the more favourable climatic conditions at low altitudes and the availability of alternative prey. The association of low population densities of E. abietinum with greater general abundance of invertebrate predators at low altitudes, where higher temperatures would have been expected to promote higher aphid populations, suggests that above a certain temperature regime generalist predators have the capacity to prevent E. abietinum responding to further increases in environmental temperatures and eventually cause mean population densities to decline. Consequently, increases in the activity and abundance of natural enemies need to be considered when predicting how E. abietinum might respond to climate change.