Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
8984960 | Preventive Veterinary Medicine | 2005 | 12 Pages |
Abstract
In our study, the probability of freedom of CSF-virus was estimated based on 789 samples; these were collected from wild-boars within the surveillance programme (within the three provinces which include 95% of the Belgian wild-boar population) and examined by three diagnostics methods (antibody detection, virus detection and virus RNA detection). A Bayesian framework was used for the estimation, accounting for the diagnostic test characteristics without the assumption of the presence of a gold standard. The median probability of freedom of CSF-virus was estimated at 0.970, with a 95% credibility interval of 0.149-1.000. Independent on the choice of the prior information, the posterior distributions for the probability of freedom of CSF-virus were always skewed close to the upper boundary of 1. This represents a big gain of knowledge since we did not use any prior information for the probability of freedom of CSF-virus and took the uncertainty about the accuracy of the diagnostic methods into account.
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Authors
K. Mintiens, D. Verloo, E. Venot, H. Laevens, J. Dufey, J. Dewulf, F. Boelaert, P. Kerkhofs, F. Koenen,