Will climate change increase the attractiveness of summer destinations in the European Alps? A survey of German tourists

The possible consequences of climate change on tourism in the Alps have been discussed widely, but much less so for the summer season. Based on a literature review on the effects of weather and climatic conditions on destination choice and development, this study surveys German tourists about travel to the Alps. The survey includes a two-step choice experiment to analyse the effect of additional days of sunshine on visitation to the Alps during summer. The findings show that an increase in the days of sunshine is only relevant for some tourism segments when traded off against other destination attributes such as outdoor activities, nature experiences or events. The likelihood to switch to a substitute destination because of additional days of sunshine is low. Destinations attracting activity and relaxation-oriented tourists would gain the most, while the nature-oriented segment is indifferent to more sunny days. The paper also discusses the methodological challenges of researching the effects of climate change on destination choice based on an extensive literature review.Management implicationsGiven the study focuses on destination choice, its implications are relevant for destination marketing in the first place:(1)About 10% of the tourists still perceive the Alps as a cold and rainy destination;(2)the discussion about climate change and its most obvious impacts such as debris flow after heavy rains might be perceived in an exaggerated manner by tourists from further away;(3)a significant nature-oriented clientele makes its destination choice independent from weather and climatic changes-therefore this target market should be regarded as the priority segment;(4)for activity–oriented visitors more sunny days do not necessarily compensate for the desired recreation activities; and(5)when positioning Alpine destinations in comparison to the Mediterranean, the marketing strategies should not rely on contrasting the moderate Alpine summer climate but emphasize typical alpine experiences and outdoor recreation activities.