Predicting canopy and trunk cross-sectional area of silver linden (Tilia tomentosa) in confined planting cutouts

Urbanized land is characterized by the dominance of paved surfaces. Increasing tree canopy in urbanized areas has been identified as an effective way to reduce stormwater runoff, sequester carbon, improve air and water quality, and otherwise mitigate the environmental impacts and increase the livability of cities. However, attaining sufficient tree canopy in urban areas remains an elusive goal. Site design characteristics such as cutout size may limit urban tree growth and complicate efforts to predict future canopy, especially in highly paved systems such as parking lots. We studied 25 silver lindens (Tilia tomentosa Moench) grown for 14 years at one site, in pavement cutouts of various sizes. Regression analysis, even on these limited data, indicated a strong relationship between tree size and canopy projection area and unpaved soil surface area, but not soil depth. Cutout size explained 70% of the variability in tree canopy projection area and 77% of the variability in trunk cross-sectional area. The addition of other variables, such as soil bulk density, did not improve the model. Trees growing in parking lot cutouts <5.3 m2 attained only limited size, regardless of the level of soil compaction. In larger cutouts, however, increases in soil bulk density from 1.1 to 1.5 Mg/m3 were associated with a 70% reduction in trunk cross-sectional area. In order to create urban sites with a sustainable tree canopy, site design must provide large areas of uncompacted soil for trees and protect this soil from compaction during use. Urban tree growth models that incorporate cutout characteristics are needed to predict future canopy area with confidence.