Identifying suitable habitat for dispersal in Bonelli's eagle: An important issue in halting its decline in Europe

Bonelli's eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) is an endangered bird of prey that is suffering a rapid decline in most of its distribution range in Europe. The aim of this study is to identify suitable areas used by juvenile eagles during their dispersal phase. Knowing the location of these target areas will help to plan adequate conservation programs to reduce the high juvenile mortality rates this species is suffering presently. The combined use of radio-telemetry for identifying core areas, Generalised Linear Models (G.L.M.) for producing predictive mathematical models and Geographic Information Systems (G.I.S.) for transferring predictive models into digital cartography predict well the presence of juvenile Bonelli's eagles in dispersal areas. We built three different Generalised Lineal Models using topography, land-use/land-cover and human disturbance as explanatory variables. Our sample units were 11 settlement areas used by juvenile eagles during dispersal and 11 other areas within available habitat generated at random. Settlement areas were identified as the core areas used by radio-tagged eagles monitored during their first years of life. Immature eagles preferred habitats with greater percentages of pasture within the circular sampling area. Topographic features showed that the most intensively used areas by immature birds were generally steeper southeast-facing slopes. Settlement areas were also situated farther from villages and roads than expected. The land-use model performed well classifying correctly 85.9% of cases validated using a data-splitting strategy. The topographic model also performed well, classifying correctly 81.39% of cases validated by the same methodology. Predictive cartography showed suitable dispersal areas within potential juvenile distribution ranges that enable more efficient design of special conservation programmes.