Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
9651737 | International Journal of Approximate Reasoning | 2005 | 25 Pages |
Abstract
We apply belief functions to an analysis of future climate change. It is shown that the lower envelope of a set of probabilities bounded by cumulative probability distributions is a belief function. The large uncertainty about natural and socio-economic factors influencing estimates of future climate change is quantified in terms of bounds on cumulative probability. This information is used to construct a belief function for a simple climate change model, which then is projected onto an estimate of global mean warming in the 21st century. Results show that warming estimates on this basis can generate very imprecise uncertainty models.
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Physical Sciences and Engineering
Computer Science
Artificial Intelligence
Authors
Elmar Kriegler, Hermann Held,