Dynamic model development of enteric methane emission from goats based on energy balance measured in indirect open circuit respiration calorimeter

A dynamic model of methane (CH4) emission in goats was proposed and parameterized from energy balance experimental data. The model focused on dry matter intake and fat content of the diet as explanatory variables for CH4 emission. Experimental and literature data were used to develop the model. Then, data (n = 123) from five energy balance experiments were used to evaluate the model. The model was adequate to represent energy in milk, heat production and CH4 emissions. Residual analysis showed that most of the prediction errors were due to unexplained variations with small mean and slope bias (around zero with exception of CH4; <6%). The model tends to over-predict energy in CH4 at higher energy intake and, energy in milk and heat production at lower energy intake. Random bias was greater than 90%, signifying than more than 90% of the error was non-systematic indicating the mechanism in the model are properly represented. The model is a first step towards a mechanistic description of nutrient use by goats and, useful as a research tool for investigating energy partition in dairy goat systems. The model described in this study should be considered for preparation of enteric CH4 emissions inventories for goats.