| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4372444 | Ecological Complexity | 2014 | 6 Pages |
•We model infectious disease spread in population patches coupled through a flow of commuters.•We find that disease persistence is significantly enhanced in a range of intermediate coupling strengths.•We show that this effect is due to smaller fluctuations of the number of infective individuals in each patch, and not to the epidemic phase-lag between patches.
We use a stochastic metapopulation model to study the combined effects of seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on disease persistence. We find a pronounced effect of enhanced persistence associated with strong heterogeneity, intermediate coupling strength and moderate seasonal forcing. Analytic calculations show that this effect is not related to the phase lag between epidemic bursts in different patches, but rather with the linear stability properties of the attractor that describes the steady state of the system in the large population limit.
