Interaction network based early-warning indicators of vegetation transitions

•We introduced a new method for detecting catastrophic transitions in ecological systems.•The new method is compared to the classical indicators of transition.•The new method performs better than the classical ones based on the critical slowing down.

Changes in vegetation patterns in semi-arid regions can precede the abrupt transition to bare soil. Here, complex network techniques are used to develop novel early-warning indicators for these desertification transitions. These indicators are applied to results from a local positive feedback vegetation model and are compared to classical indicators, such as the autocorrelation and variance of biomass time series. A quantitative measure is also introduced to evaluate the quality of the early-warning indicators. Based on this measure, the network-based indicators are superior to the classical ones, being more sensitive to the presence of the transition point.