Prediction of river ecological integrity after cascade hydropower dam construction on the mainstream of rivers in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region (LRGR), China

Dam construction is considered the major factor contributing to significant modification of river ecosystems. The related ecological effects of these constructions on flow patterns, water quality, sediment etc. have led to increased concerns in recent years. Most of the works so far focus on the assessment of vulnerability, risk, and damages to single factors, such as soil conservation, fish reproduction or vegetation. Few works have been done on to analyzing and predicting the changes of the river ecosystem integrity (REI). Taking three important international rivers, Lancang River, Nu River and Yuan River in LRGR as a case study, the relationship between cascade dam construction and REI is analyzed. A model of the cascade dam construction and the REI is developed on Lancang River after cascade construction, and then it is applied on the Nu River and Yuan River to predict the changes of REI after the planned cascade construction. The results show that there are significant relationships between the cascade construction and the change of the REI. Before the cascade development, REI index of Nu River is the highest with a value of 0.844. Yuan River, the worst of the three before the cascade construction (0.719), is found to be the best one after the cascade construction (0.389). After the cascade construction, the REI index value of the Lancang River is likely to dramatically decrease from 0.825 to 0.274.