Cycle Phase Identification and Factors Influencing the Agricultural Commodity Price Cycle in China: Evidence from Cereal Prices

Agricultural commodity prices in China have undergone substantial fluctuation with the recent commodity boom and global financial crisis, which have revealed some special characteristics of cyclical change under China's transitional economy. First, this paper identifies phases of the price cycle variation using the Bry-Boschan algorithm based on price data for cereals in China. Then, the factors influencing the duration of the price cycle are analysed using survival analysis models, and the average duration of cyclical change is also measured. Finally, conclusions and closing remarks are presented for policy-makers who wish to avoid agricultural commodity price risks and improve agricultural early warning systems.