A new prognostics method for state of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on a mixture of Gaussian process models and particle filter

•SOH estimation for lithium-ion batteries is developed under uncertainty.•Degradation process statistical properties are learnt through the GPR.•Different battery conditions are combined using the mixture of Gaussian process model.•The proposed method is based on particle filtering with distribution learning.•Experiments are provided based on NASA battery data sets.

State of health (SOH) estimation for batteries is a key component in the prognostics and health management (PHM) of battery driven systems. Due to the complicated operating conditions, it is necessary to implement the prognostics under uncertain situations. In this paper, a novel integrated approach based on a mixture of Gaussian process (MGP) model and particle filtering (PF) is presented for lithium-ion battery SOH estimation under uncertain conditions. Instead of directly assuming a certain state space model for capacity degradation, in this paper, the distribution of the degradation process is learnt from the inputs based on the available capacity monitoring data. To capture the time-varying degradation behavior, the proposed method fuses the training data from different battery conditions as the multiple inputs for the distribution learning using the MGP model. Then, a recursive updating of the distribution parameters is conducted. By exploiting the distribution information of the degradation model parameters, the PF can be implemented to predict the battery SOH. Experiments and comparison analysis are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.