Noisy predator-prey model explains oscillation patterns in sockeye salmon data

A model of sockeye salmon population dynamics that incorporates predator-prey dynamics in the nursery lakes, salmon migration and stochastic effects is compared to Fraser River sockeye salmon spawner numbers with respect to cyclic dominance. For this comparison we use a method developed by White et al. (2014) to calculate measures for the consistency and strength of cyclic dominance in the time series using its wavelet transform. We find that the model can match the oscillation patterns found in nature, both for persistently oscillating populations and for intermittent oscillations. It matches persistently oscillating populations much better than a model that does not incorporate predator-prey interaction. Persistent oscillations are more likely to occur in the model if the growth conditions for the sockeye fry are good and the coupling to the predator is strong.