The probability of growth of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked salmon and tryptic soy broth as affected by salt, smoke compound, and storage temperature

The objectives of this study were to examine and model the probability of growth of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked salmon containing salt and smoke (phenol) compound and stored at various temperatures. A growth probability model was developed, and the model was compared to a model developed from tryptic soy broth (TSB) to assess the possibility of using TSB as a substitute for salmon. A 6-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes was inoculated into minced cooked salmon and TSB containing 0–10% NaCl and 0–34 ppm phenol to levels of 102–3 cfu/g, and the samples were vacuum-packed and stored at 0-–25 °C for up to 42 days. A total 32 treatments, each with 16 samples, selected by central composite designs were tested. A logistic regression was used to model the probability of growth of L. monocytogenes as a function of concentrations of salt and phenol, and storage temperature. Resulted models showed that the probabilities of growth of L. monocytogenes in both salmon and TSB decreased when the salt and/or phenol concentrations increased, and at lower storage temperatures. In general, the growth probabilities of L. monocytogenes were affected more profoundly by salt and storage temperature than by phenol. The growth probabilities of L. monocytogenes estimated by the TSB model were higher than those by the salmon model at the same salt/phenol concentrations and storage temperatures. The growth probabilities predicted by the salmon and TSB models were comparable at higher storage temperatures, indicating the potential use of TSB as a model system to substitute salmon in studying the growth behavior of L. monocytogenes may only be suitable when the temperatures of interest are in higher storage temperatures (e.g., >12 °C). The model for salmon demonstrated the effects of salt, phenol, and storage temperature and their interactions on the growth probabilities of L. monocytogenes, and may be used to determine the growth probability of L. monocytogenes in smoked seafood.