Predictive modelling of the recovery of Listeria monocytogenes on sliced cooked ham after high pressure processing

This study examined bacterial recovery on sliced cooked ham that was inoculated with Listeria monocytogenes, treated by high pressure processing (HPP) and then stored at 10 °C for 70 days. The number of L. monocytogenes on the ham inoculated with 5 log10 CFU/g was initially reduced by HPP at 500 MPa for 10 min to below the detectable level (10 CFU/g). However, the bacterial count gradually increased during storage, and exceeded the initial inoculum level at the end of the 70-day period, having risen by 7-8 log10 CFU/g. A novel predictive model was therefore developed to estimate the recovery of L. monocytogenes during storage after HPP. Recovery of L. monocytogenes was defined as the detection of > 102 CFU/g bacteria, in view of the relevant food safety objectives of L. monocytogenes. At each 14-day sampling session, the ham was scored as either 1 or 0 indicating bacterial recovery or no bacterial recovery, respectively. The data were then subjected to a simple linear logistic regression model, which provided a good fit as indicated by the performance statistics. Using this model, we estimated the minimum HPP conditions necessary for the required storage periods. Additionally, as the developed model was based on logistic regression, the probability of the recovery of L. monocytogenes during storage after HPP was estimated. Our model not only calculated the appropriate shelf life and process conditions, but also provided a method for evaluating the risk of the recovery of pathogenic bacteria during storage.