A consumer-phase exposure assessment of Salmonella typhimurium from Irish fresh pork sausages: I. Transport and refrigeration modules

A stochastic consumer-phase exposure assessment modelling the transport and refrigeration modules indicated that the concentration of Salmonella typhimurium in contaminated Irish pork sausages prior to cooking was on average 1.79 log CFU/g (95% CI: 1.22–2.42 log CFU/g); and that, out of 100 000 refrigerated sausage packs, an average of ∼83 packs (95% CI: 73–96) would have hazardous mean Salmonella concentrations above 3 log CFU/g prior to cooking (Freq(Y > 3)). Scenario analysis revealed that a decrease in the refrigeration temperature by 2 °C and a decrease of the initial prevalence of S. typhimurium by half (∼0.02) would have a comparable level of reduction in Freq(Y > 3) (∼23–43 packs per 100 000 packs), while a decrease in the storage time by half would have by far the highest level of reduction (Freq(Y > 3) = ∼2–7 packs per 100 000 packs). Finally, a practical method for the simulation of the product’s temperature profile in cold storage has been proposed based on the application of heat transfer equations and actual product’s temperature history data.