Effects of trade and agricultural policies on the structure of the U.S. tomato industry

•Tomato trade in North America has resulted in several trade disputes.•NAFTA and trade pricing policies caused structural changes in 1992 and 1999.•Post-NAFTA Mexican imports into the U.S highly explain domestic U.S. production.

Over the last few decades, accelerated growth of Mexican tomato imports to the United States has caused several trade disputes with U.S. growers. A data-driven approach was used to analyze trade flows in the tomato industry from 1970 to 2015 and all structural changes to policy interventions implemented during the same period were linked. Tests for endogenous breakpoints reveal that NAFTA and trade pricing policies are two of the main factors that caused structural changes in the tomato industry in 1992 and 1999. While U.S. agricultural policies sought to protect domestic tomato producers, they did not stop Mexican tomatoes from taking an important share of the U.S. market. Mexican imports to the United States, especially post-NAFTA, have a high explanatory power for U.S. domestic production.