The economic impact of hurricanes on bananas: A case study of Dominica using synthetic control methods

This paper investigates the impact of hurricanes on bananas exports, using a documented case study of Hurricanes David and Frederick which struck Dominica in 1979. To this end synthetic control estimation methods were employed which entailed creating a comparable control group of the Caribbean with characteristics similar to Dominica prior to 1979 that were not affected by the storms and comparing their banana exports to those of Dominica. The estimation results show that the hurricanes had an immediate and sizeable negative impact on banana exports in Dominica in the year of the strike which lasted up to two years thereafter. However, there was no long term impact on banana exports in Dominica due to the storms.