Will the Biosafety Protocol hinder or protect the developing world: Learning from China's experience

Uncertainties about the effect of Biosafety Protocol (BSP) on global agricultural trade have caused concern among those with a stake in agrifood imports and exports. The primary goal of this paper is to analyze the potential economic impacts of the BSP on both importing countries with a specific emphasis on China and exporting countries of soybean and maize. The results show that in absolute terms the BSP will require large investments internationally and will induce compliance costs. The BSP will increase the international price and domestic production in importing countries, and lower international trade and domestic production in the exporting countries. In absolute terms the impacts are large, amounting for each commodity into the tens of millions of dollars and varying largely among different scenarios. But in the percentage the impacts are small. Much smaller impacts are found in China because China has already invested in a system that provides almost all of the services that could be required by the BSP. Other developing nations may need more help; and that it will be more costly.