Assessment of Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes level in ready-to-cook poultry meat: Effect of various high pressure treatments and potassium lactate concentrations

Once implemented in the Excel add-in @Risk, the model was run using Monte Carlo simulation. The probability distribution of contamination levels was determined for various scenarios. For an average scenario such as an HP treatment of 350 MPa for 8 min, of 200 g minced meat containing 1.8% lactate (pH 6.1; aw 0.96), conditioned under 50% CO2, the prevalence rate of Salmonella and L. monocytogenes, after a 20-day storage at 6 °C was estimated to be 4.1% and 7.1%, respectively. The contamination level was low considering that the product is going to be cooked by the consumer afterwards: the 99th percentile of the distribution was equal to − 2.3 log cfu/g for Salmonella and 0.5 log cfu/g for L. monocytogenes. More generally, the model developed here from raw material reception up to the end of the shelf-life enables to recommend combinations of HP treatment and lactate formulation to guarantee an acceptable microbial concentration before cooking.