Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures

Considerable prior research argues that time to death, not population aging, explains the growth of healthcare expenditures. The objective of this study is to shed light on this debate by presenting new evidence on the red herring hypothesis. This study adopts quantile regression analysis to reexamine variations of the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures in Taiwan over the period 2005–2009. Findings show that population aging estimates decrease from positive to negative along quantiles for the whole sample and become insignificant across most quantiles for the subsample of people aged 65 and over. For whole sample and subsample of people aged 65 and over, proximity-to-death coefficients are significantly positive in most quantiles. Moreover, time-to-death estimates show a substantial upward trend towards date of death. In particular, quarters one and two prior to death produce a significant positive impact on healthcare expenditures at the highest healthcare expenditure quantiles. The new empirical evidence from this study provides a more complete picture of the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures.