Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning—Review and extension

Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of “metacriteria” (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.

► Methods with substantial uncertainties in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) are discussed and potential application problems identified.
► Different perceptions of scenarios in decision making are discussed in the context of decision analysis, and a specific framework is identified as suitable for integration with MCDA.
► The concept of metacriteria is developed as a means of integrating scenario planning and MCDA.
► The approach is illustrated by means of a realistic example of strategic planning.