Credible expectations - The US Department of Energy's Hydrogen Program as enactor and selector of hydrogen technologies

► Expectations are crucial to sociotechnical transitions, but not all are credible. ► What makes one technological expectation more credible than another? ► A case study on the US Department of Energy's Hydrogen Program. ► Credible expectations build on recent progress and a substantiated path forward. ► When a pathway's credibility is challenged, technological 'losers' are dropped.