New economy jobs and economic health, prosperity in Canada's mid-size urban areas

• Natural resources and manufacturing are important in the economies of mid-size Canadian urban areas.
• The economic prosperity of these urban areas declined relative to the national average between 1996 and 2006.
• The strongest correlation with 2006 economic prosperity is the 1996 prosperity level.
• Economic prosperity in these metropolitan areas is associated with educated, diverse populations.

Many large North American metropolitan areas are becoming increasingly reliant on services (financial, health and education) and high tech manufacturing as local economic drivers. Have mid-size metropolitan areas (population 50,000 to 500,000) been able to similarly restructure their economies to remain prosperous and competitive? This paper examines the recent changes in the economies and prosperity of mid-size Canadian urban areas, comparing them to the Canadian economy as a whole. Mid-size urban areas are found to have had mixed success in economic restructuring and attracting New Economy jobs. Overall, this decade has seen a substantial decline in the average Economic Prosperity Index of these communities, relative to the nation as a whole.In many cases, Economic Prosperity appears to be path dependent: prosperous communities with substantial proportions of New Economy jobs are likely to remain prosperous and to attract more such jobs. There are, however, few significant correlations between metropolitan employment profiles and maintaining or increasing prosperity. Higher levels of economic prosperity are found in urban areas with a well-educated, diverse population.