Reforestation amidst deforestation: Simultaneity and succession

The forest-transition theory of expanding forest cover after prolonged periods of deforestation has typically examined forest regeneration apart from historic land-use patterns. In the Bayano-Darién agricultural frontier of Panama, this paper observes forest-cover expansion that is simultaneous to and successive of a preceding pattern of land-use/cover change characterized by expanding ranchland and depopulation. Landsat TM satellite-imagery analysis for 1990–2000, household land-use histories since 2000 and forest plantation records for 1992–2007 illustrate reforestation occurring alongside deforestation. The findings describe a land-cover change dynamic by which a nascent pathway of reforestation assumes the characteristics of antecedent pathways of deforestation. Large-scale commercial interests dominated forestation via plantation expansion, succeeding and consolidating ranchers as ranchers previously succeeded small-scale agriculturalists. Contrary to the forest-transition theory, off-farm employment and emigration did not encourage reforestation amongst ranchers. The drivers, nature, likelihood and limitations of a nascent forest transition appear somewhat determinable by antecedent pathways of deforestation. Refocusing on regional-scale antecedent pathways of land-use/cover change promises to expose a typology of forest transitions of varied potency.