Estimating potential long-haul air passenger traffic in national networks containing two or more dominant cities

In this paper, we build an analytical framework to estimate potential passenger traffic for new long-haul routes originating in secondary airports within national airport systems where a main hub concentrates most of the transcontinental traffic. The results are particularly important in the context of air space liberalization, which is generating opportunities for new city-pair traffic. If airport and airline managers can correctly value route alternatives, they can make better decisions concerning alliances, expansion plans, or the development of their hub-and-spoke networks.

► We build a model to estimate demand for long-haul routes from secondary airports.
► We use true origin/destination data to build an “alternative” hub-and-spoke system.
► We reveal that long-haul traffic demand in secondary airports can be significant.
► The model is applicable in traffic redistribution strategies and route planning.