Future mobility in India: Implications for energy demand and CO2 emission

The aim of this study is threefold. First, it aims to provide a reliable data set of land-based passenger traffic volumes in India from 1950–1951 to 2000–2001 for the five major motorized modes of transport—two-wheelers, cars, auto-rickshaws, buses, and railways. Second, based on this data set, it aims to estimate the long-term trends in motorized traffic volume and modal split up to the year 2020–2021. Third, based on the projected values of aggregate traffic volume and modal split, this study aims to estimate the level and growth of energy demand and CO2 emission from the passenger transport sector in India. It is found that the motorized traffic volume in India will very nearly touch the mark of 13 000 billion passenger-kilometers in 2020–2021, out of which 91.7% will be provided by the roads and the rest by railways. If there is no reduction in modal energy and CO2 intensities, energy demand is projected to increase from 1060.8 peta joules in 2000–2001 to 5584.4 peta joules in 2020–2021 and CO2 emission will increase from 19.80 to 93.25 million metric tons of carbon equivalent during the same period.