Combined rCBF and CSF biomarkers predict progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease

This study aimed to identify preclinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) using measurements of both regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers. Baseline rCBF assessments (133Xe method) were performed in 70 patients with MCI who were cognitively stable for 4–6 years, 69 patients with MCI who subsequently developed AD, and 33 healthy individuals. CSF was collected at baseline and analyzed for β-amyloid1–42, total tau and phophorylated tau. In contrast to patients with stable MCI, those who subsequently developed AD had decreased rCBF in the temporo-parietal cortex already at baseline. The relative risk of future progression to AD was particularly increased in MCI patients with decreased rCBF in parietal cortex (hazard ratio 3.1, P < 0.0001). Subjects with pathological levels of both CSF tau and β-amyloid1–42 were also at high risk of developing AD (hazard ratio 13.4, P < 0.0001). The MCI patients with a combination of decreased parietal rCBF and pathological CSF biomarkers at baseline had a substantially increased risk of future development of AD, with a hazard ratio of 24.3 (P < 0.0001), when compared to those with normal CSF biomarkers. Moreover, decreased parietal rCBF (but not CSF biomarkers) was associated with a more rapid progression to AD. In conclusion, the combination of rCBF and CSF biomarkers improves the risk assessment of progression to AD in patients with MCI.